Rupee does U turn, nosedives 67 paise against US dollarMeToo

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The rupee is the worst performing emerging market currency losing over 15 percent year to date, while in the first half it averaged at 68.57 to the dollar, down 8.3 percent year on year, making the depreciation at a five year high so far, says an India Ratings report.Following the market mayhem and the rupee plunge after the Fed ‘taper tantrum’ in summer of 2013, RBI mobilised USD 25 billion from non resident Indians. The move was initiated by the then governor Raghuram Rajan soon after he took over the RBI reins in September that year.Rupee does U turn, nosedives 67 paise against US dollarMeToo impact? India Inc wants training on how to respond to POSH Act complaints on social mediaExcessive competition can at times put particular sector under stress: Arun JaitleyHe further said the rupee may average at 69.79 to the dollar in the second half, down 8.3 percent from the first half provided the RBI mops up at least USD 30 billion from NRIs as it has done in 2013.According to him, the rupee pain emanates from global developments such as strengthening dollar; high commodity prices especially of crude oil; rising US rates, coupled with domestic factors like widening trade/current account deficit, inflationary pressures and likely fiscal slippage.”The current bout of a sharp deterioration in the rupee is the fourth such instance in the current decade indicating its vulnerability to global events,” he said.It can be noted that after 2013 episode when it had plunged to 86.83 to a dollar on August 30 that year, the rupee has enjoyed a relatively stable run, due to mobilisation of NRI deposits in foreign currency non repatriable account; crash in global commodity prices, especially crude from September 2014, and delayed monetary tightening by the US Fed.”But all these changed at the turn of FY19 due to a sudden spurt in oil prices and a reversal in capital flows, although chinks in this seemingly happy equilibrium had emerged in FY18 itself,” he said.The country meets over 82 percent of oil demand by crude imports. Though dollar requirements to fund merchandise imports has risen, there has been no commensurate earnings from merchandise exports.While the first line of rupee defence has traditionally been invisibles, remittances and software earnings, this time around these could not grow at the same pace as merchandise imports.

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